For each match we estimate expected goals (lambda) by multiplying team A's attack strength by team B's defensive weakness, against a 1.4 goal baseline. The Poisson formula gives the full probability distribution for 0, 1, 2... goals.
Attack rating = (goals scored / games played) divided by confederation average. Defense rating = (goals conceded / games) divided by confederation average. A rating below 1.0 means fewer goals than average.
48 teams in 12 groups of 4. Top 2 from each group qualify automatically (24 teams). The 8 best 3rd-placed teams also qualify, ranked by points then goal difference then goals scored. Total 32 teams enter the knockout stage: Round of 32, R16, QF, SF, Final.
Predictions are statistical estimates only. The model does not account for injuries, suspensions, squad rotation, or tournament momentum. For entertainment purposes only.